On Tuesday, January 27, 2026, the United States Census Bureau released its 2025 population estimates for the nation and the District of Columbia. The data paint a concerning picture and reveal three key insights. First, the District’s population growth underperformed the nation’s. Second, the District’s population growth is slower than previously estimated. Third, migration and natural increase, the components of population change that serve as proxies for the city’s attractiveness, both worsened.
Insight # 1: D.C.’s population growth underperformed the nation.
The Census data show that national population growth slowed to 0.5 percent, an increase of approximately 1.8 million people. The District’s population growth also slowed, from 1.3 percent in 2024 to 0.3 percent in 2025. In round numbers, the District’s population increased from 682,559 residents in 2023 to 691,310 in 2024, and to 693,645 in 2025. It is important to note that these current estimates incorporate revisions to the previous 2024 estimates.
Insight # 2: D.C.’s population growth is slower than previously estimated.
As with the 2024 population numbers, the revisions for previous years were notable. The Census Bureau revised the District’s 2024 population down from 702,250 to 691,310.[1] The revision means that in 2024, the District’s population grew at 1.3 percent, and not at 2.2 percent, as previously estimated. With respect to the components of population change, the largest revisions concerned international migration: the 2024 estimate, for example, was revised downward by nearly half.
Insight # 3: Migration and natural increase, the components of population change tied to the city’s attractiveness, both worsened.
In 2025, domestic outmigration increased, with the rate of people leaving the District for elsewhere in the United States rising from approximately 0.6 to 6.0 per 1,000 people. International migration—which has fueled the District’s population growth in recent years—declined from approximately 9.2 per 1,000 people (current estimate) to 5.7 per 1,000 people. Put simply, fewer people came from outside the United States to reside in the District. Taken together, the two migration trends meant that the District did not experience any net migration gains—international plus domestic migration—in 2025. The District’s rate of natural increase—births minus deaths—also dropped, albeit modestly, from 4.1 to 3.6 per 1,000 people. This decline was primarily driven by fewer births, which fell from 7,747 in 2024 to 7,336 in 2025. Fewer births suggest a reduction in families opting to reside in the city and should be closely monitored because of their effects on future public school enrollment.
Overall, the 2025 population numbers and their underlying drivers provide a sobering reminder that the District’s attractiveness cannot be taken for granted.
Notes:
- U.S. Census Bureau’s vintage population estimates for 2025 can be found here.
- U.S. Census Bureau’s vintage population estimates for 2024 can be found here.
[1] While this is a relatively large revision, it is not atypical. The Census Bureau revises population estimates to account for new data from national Vital Records (births/deaths), the IRS (domestic migration), Department of Homeland Security (for international migration), and other administrative records. For example, the v.2007 revisions adjusted D.C.’s population by 3-5 percent for a five-year period compared to the v.2006 estimate. For details, see: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2026/01/updates-data-methodology-population-estimates.html