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Chart of the week: D.C. metro area population growth under 1 percent in 2025, lagging lower-cost peers

April 03, 2026
  • Daniel Burge
  • Chelsea Coffin

In late March of 2026, the United States Census Bureau released its population estimates for metropolitan areas.

The data show that the D.C. metro area’s population grew by less than 1 percent in 2025, down from almost 1.4 percent in 2024. Lower migration rates drove the slowdown—especially from abroad. International migration fell from nearly 12.7 per 1,000 people to 7 per 1,000, while domestic outmigration remained steady at about 3.7 per 1,000. 

In 2025, death rates hovered slightly above 6 per 1,000 people, while birth rates were almost 11 per 1,000 people. The longer-term birth trend, however, is concerning.  Since 2022, birth rates in the D.C. region have declined, mirroring trends across many other metropolitan areas and the District itself—suggesting a broader fertility decline that extends beyond any single city.

Nevertheless, fewer births will negatively affect enrollment in public schools. In the District proper, for example, research by the D.C. Policy Center’s Education Policy Initiative suggests that fewer births could lead to a loss of 743 enrolled students over the next half decade. Much of the decline in enrollment would affect pre-kindergarten, where enrollment could fall by 14 percent.

Birth trends contribute to the broader pattern of slower population growth in high-cost metro areas. While the D.C. metro area ranked second compared to its higher-cost peers, higher-cost metro areas underperformed their lower-cost counterparts. For example, the D.C. metro area ranked in the bottom half of lower-cost metro areas.

In sum, the 2025 metro estimates show that population growth in the D.C. metro area remains fragile and lags many lower-cost metro areas across the country. Future growth likely hinges on migration flows, which can shift quickly, and birth rates, which have shown few signs of rebounding.

Data notes:

Authors

Daniel Burge

Director of the Alice M. Rivlin Initiative for Economic Policy & Competitiveness
D.C. Policy Center

Daniel Burge is the Director of the Alice M. Rivlin Initiative for Economic Policy & Competitiveness. Before joining the team at the D.C. Policy Center in late October of 2023, Daniel worked at the Center for Washington Area Studies at George Washington University. He performed data analysis for a report on mortgage market trends in the Capital Region and co-authored a policy brief on property tax lien sales. Daniel has published work in The Washington Post and Greater Greater Washington. He received his BA from the University of Puget Sound, his PhD in American history from Boston University, and his MPP (Master of Public Policy) from George Washington University.

You can reach Daniel at daniel@dcpolicycenter.org.

Chelsea Coffin

Deputy Director
D.C. Policy Center

Chelsea Coffin is the Deputy Director of the D.C. Policy Center, leading the Education Policy Initiative. She joined the D.C. Policy Center in September 2017. Her research focuses on how schools connect to broader dynamics in the District of Columbia. She has authored reports on diversity in D.C.’s schools, the D.C. schools with the best improvement for at-risk students, and the transition after high school in D.C. Chelsea has also conducted planning analysis at the D.C. Public Charter School Board, carried out research at the World Bank, and taught English in a secondary school with the Peace Corps in Mozambique. She currently serves on the boards of Higher Achievement, Maya Angelou Public Charter Schools/See Forever Foundation, and District Bridges.

Chelsea holds a Bachelor of Arts from Middlebury College and a Master of Arts from Johns Hopkins University (SAIS) in International Economics and Development.

You can reach Chelsea at chelsea@dcpolicycenter.org.

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