D.C.’s overall population has been increasing in recent years, mostly due to international migration. However, trends for the youngest residents tell a different story.[1] Births have been declining in D.C. from a high of 9,854 in 2016 to 7,898 in 2023, decreasing by an average of 244 births annually. Early estimates suggest this decline has continued to approximately 7,600 births in 2024.[2]
Among other outcomes,[3] this gradual downward trend has implications for future enrollment in public schools, most immediately for pre-kindergarten, as well as early childhood education. Demographic shifts since the DC Office of Planning’s 2023 population forecasts mean that the anticipated number of births in 2024 is already lower than forecasted number of babies under age 1 in the District in 2025.[4]
To get an updated sense of D.C.’s youngest population, this analysis applies D.C.’s historical birth series to the statistical forecasting model known as ARIMA[5], which is commonly used by public agencies and researchers to project trends. ARIMA relies on past patterns within the data—such as whether numbers tend to rise, fall, or cycle—to estimate what future values are likely to be.[6] Projections for D.C. are based on birth data from 1990 to 2024 and indicate that births are expected to remain below earlier highs, stabilizing around 7,600 over the next several years. The projections are below the Office of Planning’s estimates[7] by an average of 609 births in 2025 through 2027.
Implications for pre-kindergarten and early childhood enrollment
Lower than expected births in the coming years will have implications for future enrollment in pre-kindergarten and early childhood education. Over the past three years, enrollment in PK3 (pre-kindergarten for three-year-olds) has represented on average 60 percent of the number of babies born three years earlier. This Grade Progression Ratio (GPR) is calculated by dividing PK3 enrollment by the number of births from the corresponding year. As PK3 is not compulsory, this GPR can be interpreted as an early signal for future public school enrollment. A higher share of babies born typically enroll in kindergarten as the first compulsory grade (80 percent in recent years according to the Office of the Deputy Mayor for Education’s estimates).[8]
These ratios account for families moving into or out of the District and the proportion of children who enroll in public PK3 programs instead of private or community-based options. A sustained GPR around 60 percent means that a little more than half of all children born in the District enroll in PK3 when they are the right age.
If these trends continue, PK3 enrollment could decline in the coming years, by about 244 per year through school year 2027-28 (based on actual births) and stabilize from school years 2028-29 to 2030-31 (based on projected births). This shift may reflect broader demographic changes, such as declining fertility, migration patterns, and family decisions related to housing and early childhood education options. For early childhood education, a lower level of births could mean smaller enrollment at child development facilities—although this is harder to predict: available data on the number of infants and toddlers with subsidy enrollment has been increasing since 2021 while decreasing for preschoolers.[9]
The relationship between declining births and future PK3 enrollment has important implications for planning. School systems rely on these forecasts to prepare for changes in class sizes, staffing needs, and resource distribution. Policymakers use them to assess long-term demand for early childhood education and to plan investments accordingly. As births continue to trend downward, the District can expect smaller but more stable PK3 cohorts in the years ahead.
[1] Burge, D. 2025. “Chart of the week: While the District’s population grew for the third consecutive year, two key indicators remain concerning.” D.C. Policy Center. Retrieved from https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/chart-of-the-week-while-the-districts-population-grew-for-the-third-consecutive-year-two-key-indicators-remain-concerning/
[2] Office of the Deputy Mayor of Education (DME). 2025. “EdScape: Number of Births and Birth Rates.” DME. Retrieved from https://edscape.dc.gov/page/pop-and-students-number-births-and-birth-rates
[3] Reduced long-term workforce growth and lower demand for maternal and pediatric health services.
[4] DC Office of Planning. 2023. “DC Forecasts.” DC Office of Planning. Retrieved from https://planning.dc.gov/publication/dc-forecasts
[5] ARIMA stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.
[6] In this case, the model evaluated multiple possible patterns and ultimately selected a structure that best fit the historical data. ARIMA models are used because they capture patterns in past data, such as trends and autocorrelation, to generate statistically grounded forecasts. Auto-ARIMA automates this process by selecting the optimal model configuration based on information criteria, ensuring the best-fitting ARIMA structure for the data.
[7] Estimates are drawn from the most recent data available on the Office of Planning’s website.
[8] Office of the Deputy Mayor of Education (DME). 2025. “EdScape: Births to Kindergarten Enrollment Ratio.” DME. Retrieved from https://edscape.dc.gov/node/1592536/
[9] Council of the District of Columbia. 2025. Committee of the Whole Performance Oversight Responses, Office of the State Superintendent of Education. Council of the District of Columbia. Retrieved from https://dccouncil.gov/committee-oversight/