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D.C. Voices: Early signals for enrollment in school year 2025-26

May 21, 2025
  • Chelsea Coffin
  • Hannah Mason

Public school enrollment in D.C. has grown for three consecutive years, including a 1 percent increase in school year 2024-25. Enrollment gains were strongest in middle and high school grades, which grew by more than 2 percent, and enrollment in adult and alternative schools increased by 2.4 percent. This stands in contrast to national trends where public school enrollment has been declining.1 However, the outlook is mixed for early grades. Elementary enrollment rose by less than 1 percent, and pre-kindergarten enrollment declined by 1.7 percent. Smaller early grade cohorts could lead to weaker enrollment growth in the future.

There are two reasons to expect lower enrollment in early grades in the near future:  

  1. Declining births: The number of births in D.C. has declined every year since peaking in 2016. In 2022—the birth year most relevant for the pre-kindergarten cohort of school year 2025-26—births dropped by 7 percent, compared to an average decline of 3 percent annually since 2017.  
  1. Federal employment uncertainty: Ongoing concerns about job stability among federal government employees and contractors may lead to more families relocating out of the District, further affecting enrollment.  

One early indicator of fall 2025 enrollment is the number of PK3 applicants submitted through the My School DC common lottery. Because PK3 is a non-compulsory grade, all students must apply. For school year 2025-26, applications declined by 2 percent. This is a smaller drop than the 7 percent decline in the births for the same cohort, and importantly, the ratio of applicants to births rose to 0.59—the highest since before the pandemic—suggesting renewed interest among families in staying in D.C. and enrolling in PK3.

With all of this uncertainty in future enrollment, we reached out to education community stakeholders to find out what they are seeing around enrollment in the fall of 2025.

Lewis D. Ferebee, Ed.D., Chancellor, DC Public Schools 

Over the past decade, DC Public Schools (DCPS) has experienced steady enrollment growth, recovering quickly from a brief pandemic dip to be one of the only districts in the region to increase its number of enrolled students. And for School Year 2024-2025, the district reached a milestone—more than 52,000 students. This growth signals that families across the city continue to place their trust in DCPS and are increasingly drawn to what our 117 schools have to offer. 

Mayor Bowser says often that families are “voting with their feet” to make sure their children can access the unique DCPS experience—from our learn to swim or ride a bike cornerstones in elementary school to participating in our expanded Career and Technical Education (CTE) programs in middle and high school. Experiential learning is not extra; it’s critical to how we ensure students are succeeding academically, feel connected to their schools, and are prepared students for what’s next at every stage … even life beyond the classroom. 

From a brief analysis of early enrollment indicators for School Year 2025-2026, we anticipate that caregivers facing job loss and financial hardship may be opting to transition to their neighborhood public school or they may have entered the lottery to exercise school choice. Whatever their reason, DCPS is proud to welcome them. Our schools are ready—not only to register and support new students but to provide high-quality instruction, build strong relationships, and present opportunities that reflect what families want most for their children. 

DCPS has also responded quickly and compassionately when charter school closures have displaced students, ensuring impacted families are connected to DCPS options that meet their needs. Our Central Services enrollment and school-based teams are working together on outreach, promotion of programming, and —including telephone banking, multilingual support, and in-person registration assistance. We want to make sure families feel informed and valued.  

Across the city, re-enrollment campaigns are in full swing. As we look further out to the future of PK-12 enrollment in our nation’s capital, DCPS is excited to continue growing as the system that families actively choose each year. And DCPS’ commitment to its mission remains the same: to deliver on the guarantee of joyful and rigorous learning in every school, for every student, every day. 

Daniela Anello, Head of School, D.C. Bilingual Public Charter School 

Despite concerning enrollment trends across the city, DC Bilingual’s enrollment indicators remain strong. For the upcoming school year, we have robust waitlists at every grade level and received over 1,400 applications for approximately 72 PK3 seats and a handful of additional openings across other grades. 

In my opinion these numbers reflect not only our school’s strong academic performance and reputation for high-quality dual-language education, but also the growing demand from families for schools that are culturally responsive, inclusive, and community-oriented. 

That said, we’re paying close attention to how federal shifts and economic uncertainty may impact D.C. families—especially those relying on stable government employment or social support systems. While our enrollment remains steady now, continued shifts in affordability, housing access, and public sector employment could reshape the city’s demographics and influence long-term PK–12 enrollment patterns. 

We believe this moment calls for renewed investment in family engagement and neighborhood-level outreach to build trust and ensure schools remain responsive to the evolving needs of D.C. residents. For us, that means deepening partnerships with families who are new to the city, navigating immigration challenges, or experiencing housing instability—all of which impact school access and choice. 

We see our school’s high demand not as an outlier, but as an indicator of what families are looking for; stability, joy, and educational excellence that reflects their family values and sees kids as unique and valuable members of society (at least that’s what we aim to do). 

Below are our current waitlist numbers by grade: 

Lecester Johnson, Chief Executive Officer, Academy of Hope Adult Public Charter School 

As Chief Executive Officer of an adult public charter school, I lead an institution dedicated to helping adults earn their high school diplomas and pursue career pathways that lead to industry-recognized certifications. As the District undergoes federal workforce shifts, we are monitoring the possible impact on our enrollment, particularly among entry-level workers who may be seeking to earn a high school diploma, up-skill or re-skill after job loss.  

While we are still analyzing enrollment data to better understand emerging demographic trends, early indicators show an increase in demand. From January to May, we recorded a 33% rise in interest in our workforce programs compared to the same period last year. This increase is particularly significant given the economic uncertainty in the District. Historically, adult learners tend to finalize enrollment decisions in late summer once their children are situated for the upcoming school year. We anticipate further enrollment growth and are assessing the need to expand seat availability and support accordingly. 

In addition to our academic and workforce training programs, we are assessing the increased investment required to sustain critical learner support services, particularly considering growing threats to public safety-net programs. We recently doubled our emergency assistance fund and anticipate that further expansion may be necessary as economic pressures on our learners intensify. Academy of Hope also provides food support through our onsite partner, Plenty to Eat, and connects learners with housing and transportation assistance. These comprehensive wraparound services are essential to fostering stability for our learners as they pursue their education and we believe we will see even greater demand in the near future. 

Amelia, parent to a future PK3er living in Northeast DC 

I am a federal government employee and parent to two children, one of whom is eligible to start pre-kindergarten next fall and one who is enrolled in a childcare center. For our family, these past few months have been full of uncertainty, as my husband and I are both federal employees at an agency that has experienced Reductions in Force (RIFs) this year. With all the cuts, we talked about what would happen if one or both of us lost our jobs and remained committed to staying in D.C. and sending our child to PK3 next fall throughout those conversations.  

At this point in time, we are both still employed and have enrolled our child at a public charter school for the 2025-26 school year. I have lived in D.C. for over ten years, love it, and don’t intend to leave—and free pre-kindergarten is extremely valuable to us, especially with ongoing childcare costs for our younger one. In addition, I’m happy with what’s going on in D.C.’s schools and that local political leaders support education. One issue that makes me nervous moving forward is that some parts of D.C.’s budget seem to be outside of local control. Even with this issue, I get the sense that most families whom I know with three-year-olds are on the same page and also planning to stay and enter PK3 next fall. 

Endnotes

  1. Coffin, C. and Mason, H. 2025. State of D.C. Schools, 2023-24: Strong system health and modest progress. D.C. Policy Center. Retrieved from https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/state-of-d-c-schools-2023-24/

Authors

Chelsea Coffin

Deputy Director
D.C. Policy Center

Chelsea Coffin is the Deputy Director of the D.C. Policy Center, leading the Education Policy Initiative. She joined the D.C. Policy Center in September 2017. Her research focuses on how schools connect to broader dynamics in the District of Columbia. She has authored reports on diversity in D.C.’s schools, the D.C. schools with the best improvement for at-risk students, and the transition after high school in D.C. Chelsea has also conducted planning analysis at the D.C. Public Charter School Board, carried out research at the World Bank, and taught English in a secondary school with the Peace Corps in Mozambique. She serves on the Board of Directors for District Bridges.

Chelsea holds a Bachelor of Arts from Middlebury College and a Master of Arts from Johns Hopkins University (SAIS) in International Economics and Development.

You can reach Chelsea at chelsea@dcpolicycenter.org.

Hannah Mason

Senior Education Research Analyst
D.C. Policy Center

Hannah Mason is the Senior Education Research Analyst at the D.C. Policy Center. 

Prior to joining the Policy Center in 2023, Hannah served as an Emergent Bilingual Coordinator and Instructional Coach in Nashville, Tennessee. She was most proud of her abilities to build community amongst her students, drive language acquisition success, and advocate tirelessly for equity in and outside of the classroom for her students. In addition, she began her teaching career in Houston, Texas.

Hannah is originally from Dublin, Georgia. She holds a Bachelor’s in religion and teaching English to speakers of other languages from The University of Georgia. Hannah graduated from Vanderbilt University with an Master’s in Public Policy concentrating in K-12 Education Policy.