Planning for childcare in D.C.: Estimating the number of children likely to need care

There are currently an estimated 22,628 infants and toddlers under age 3 (ages 0 to 2) in D.C.[1] Before children become eligible for universal pre-kindergarten at age 3, access to affordable childcare supports both early childhood development and parental participation in the workforce.[2]

As D.C.’s child population declines due to fewer births,[3] understanding how many children are likely to need childcare and their characteristics will be critical for planning future capacity and subsidy programs at D.C.’s child development centers. This analysis estimates the number of children under age 3 in Washington, D.C. who are likely to require childcare through 2028 by combining household structure and parental labor force participation from the American Community Survey (ACS) with projected births.[4] The resulting estimates provide a picture of future childcare demand that can help inform decisions regarding childcare investments, subsidy funding, and early childhood program planning.

The analysis was completed in three steps:

1. Create a baseline profile: Five-year ACS data (2020–2024) were used to create a child-level dataset for all children under age 3 in D.C., including  the parental participation in the labor force.
2. Estimate childcare demand: The analysis calculated the share of children living in households where all present parents participate in the labor force, a proxy for children who are likely to require regular childcare.
3. Project future need: These labor force participation patterns were applied to projected birth cohorts to estimate the number of children under age 3, and the number likely to need childcare, through 2028.

Current Household Profile for children under the age of three

According to ACS data, there were an estimated 23,443 children under the age of 3 in the District on average over the past five years [5].  Approximately two-thirds of children under three live in two-parent households, while just over a quarter live with a single mother. Labor force participation varies by household type.

• Nearly 62 percent of children under age 3 live with both parents, and around 82 percent of these children have both parents in the labor force.
• Thirty percent of children under 3 live with a single mother, and about 61 percent of those mothers participate in the labor force.
• A small share of this child population (3 percent) live with single-father households, with 100 percent labor force participation in the ACS sample.

Combining all categories, an estimated 72 percent of children under age 3 in D.C. live in households where all present parents participate in the labor force. This figure aggregates labor force participation and share of households with two parents (50.6 percent), single mothers (18.7 percent), and single fathers (3.0 percent).

Birth Projections and Child Population Estimates

Projected births and single year current population estimates for 2025 were used to estimate the number of children ages 0, 1, and 2 (the three age cohorts that together comprise the “under 3” population at any point in time) in each year from 2025 through 2028. Applying the 72 percent working-parent rate produces an estimate of the number of children likely to need childcare.

Expected subsidy need = Total Children Under Age 3 × 72% (working-parent share from ACS). The Five-Year Average column reflects the ACS baseline for reference.

In 2025, 16,368 children are expected to need childcare. By comparison, subsidy enrollment as of December 2025 was 6,292, of whom roughly 3,900 were children of working parents.[6] The population is projected to decline to 20,652 children in 2026, before increasing modestly in the next two years. By 2028, the total child population under 3 is projected to reach 21,441, with an estimated 15,510 children needing childcare subsidies. This is 858 fewer than in 2025—approximately a 5 percent decrease over three years. Even with a modest decrease, the demand for childcare is likely to remain substantial, even as the population of young children shrinks.

Limitations:

• The 72 percent rate assumes household structure and parental employment patterns remain stable over the 2025-2028 projection window.
• Birth projections carry their own uncertainty; the analysis uses point estimates rather than ranges.

Data Points:

1. Single Age Population Estimates. U.S. Census Bureau, State Population by Characteristics: 2020–2025, U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-state-detail.html
2. Birth Projections: Imran, A. (2025, December 17). Chart of the week: Projecting future births and young children in D.C. D.C. Policy Center. https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/chart-of-the-week-projecting-future-births-and-young-children-in-dc/
3. Household structure and labor force participation: ACS 5-Year Estimates Public Use Microdata Sample (2024). United States Census Bureau
4. Childcare subsidy enrolment: Office of the State Superintendent of Education, DC Child Care Subsidy Program FY26 Q1 Data Report. https://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/publication/attachments/Subsidy%20Program%20Data%20FY26%20Q1

[1] 2020-2025 Single Age Population Estimates. U.S. Census Bureau, State Population by Characteristics: 2020–2025, U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-state-detail.html

[2] Gunderson, A. (2024, July 17). Expanding child care subsidies would boost the District’s economy: DC could achieve $1.7 billion in economic growth if all families had access. DC Fiscal Policy Institute.

[3] Imran, A. (2025, December 17). Chart of the week: Projecting future births and young children in D.C. D.C. Policy Center. https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/chart-of-the-week-projecting-future-births-and-young-children-in-dc/

[4] Using data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the analysis identifies the share of young children living in households with all present parents participating in the labor force and applies these patterns to projected birth cohorts to estimate future childcare demand.

[5] ACS 5-Year Estimates Public Use Microdata Sample (2024). United States Census Bureau

[6] Office of the State Superintendent of Education, DC Child Care Subsidy Program FY26 Q1 Data Report. https://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/publication/attachments/Subsidy%20Program%20Data%20FY26%20Q1