Investing in systems that improve economic and education outcomes is critical to District success, and early enrollment signs show increases

Office of Education Through Employment Pathways 

The Mayor’s proposed budget shows continued investment in improving economic and education outcomes for the District’s residents, including $550,000 to support the Office of Education Through Employment Pathways, which will provide data on the long-term impact of education and workforce programs for District residents.¹ Better workforce data systems can inform alignment of education and training programs, quality of job offerings, employment outcomes, and more.² At a time of constrained resources, this system is more important than ever to understand which programs are producing outcomes for D.C. residents and connecting high school alumni to good jobs in D.C.³

Research shows that statewide longitudinal data systems (SLDS) help individuals, the public, and policymakers make decisions about education and workforce programs.⁴ When leaders give people tailored, individual access to the data they need, it also supports in the success of policies and programs like these: programs of study and stackable credentials aligned to employment needs, quality Career and Technical Education (CTE) programming, support for historically underserved and vulnerable populations, education and training opportunities aligned with employment needs, and more.⁵ Everyone should have tailored access to data to information to drive student success, economic mobility, and systemic change.⁶ D.C.’s investment in these types of systems shows dedication to improving outcomes for residents and providing transparency that builds public trust and accountability. 

Early enrollment signals for school year 2025-26 

The FY26 budget projects an increase of 3 percent in enrollment for school year 2025-26, with relatively higher growth projected in pre-kindergarten and elementary grades, and less in middle and high school grades. While D.C.’s public school enrollment has steadily increased in recent years, countering national trends, there are some new risks to consider especially for pre-kindergarten. First, this higher growth in earlier grades is the opposite of recent trends of stronger growth in older grades in D.C. Last year, elementary enrollment rose by less than 1 percent, and pre-kindergarten enrollment declined by 1.7 percent. Second, the number of births in D.C. has declined every year since peaking in 2016. In 2022—the birth year most relevant for the pre-kindergarten cohort of school year 2025-26—births dropped by 7 percent, compared to an average decline of 3 percent annually since 2017. Third, ongoing concerns about job stability among federal government employees and contractors may lead to more families relocating out of the District, further affecting enrollment. 

As an early indicator of fall 2025 enrollment, the number of PK3 applicants submitted through the My School DC common lottery. declined by 2 percent. However, demand may be relatively stronger as the ratio of applicants to births in the relevant year increased to 0.59 – the highest since the pandemic.⁷ This shows a renewed interest among families staying in D.C. and enrolling in PK3. While there are several uncertainties that could impact public school enrollment and therefore funding, school leaders and other community members reported strong indicators of fall enrollment, which is a good sign for now—but something to keep an eye on.⁸

There is more uncertainty than usual in this year’s budget, which makes it important to focus on identifying which programs are most effective through analyses like the Education Through Employment data system. It also makes it important to consider how to support schools that do meet enrollment targets especially early grades. 

1. Office of the Chief Financial Officer (CFO). 2025. “2026 GW0 Deputy Mayor for Education.” CFO. Retrieved from https://cfo.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/ocfo/publication/attachments/gw0_odme_chapter_2026m.pdf
2. Perry, A. 2023. “Better P-20W Data Requires Better Workforce Data Systems.” Data Quality Campaign. Retrieved from https://dataqualitycampaign.org/p-20w-data-requires-better-workforce-data-systems/ 
3. Coffin, C., & Mason, H. 2024. Building career assets for lifelong success. D.C. Policy Center. Retrieved from https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/building-career-assets-for-lifelong-success/ 
4. Data Quality Campaign (DQC). 2023. What Now? A vision to transform state data systems. DQC. Retrieved from https://dataqualitycampaign.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/DQC-What-Now_A-Vision-to-Transform-State-Data-Systems.pdf
5. Data Quality Campaign (DQC). 2023. What Now? A vision to transform state data systems. DQC. Retrieved from https://dataqualitycampaign.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/DQC-What-Now_A-Vision-to-Transform-State-Data-Systems.pdf
6. Data Quality Campaign (DQC). “People Need Access to Data.” DQC. Retrieved from https://dataqualitycampaign.org/our-work/people-need-access-to-data/ 
7. Coffin, C., & Mason, H. 2025. “D.C. Voices: Early signals for enrollment in school year 2025-26.” D.C. Policy Center. Retrieved from https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/dc-voices-enrollment-for-school-year-2025-26/ 
8. Coffin, C., & Mason, H. 2025. “D.C. Voices: Early signals for enrollment in school year 2025-26.” D.C. Policy Center. Retrieved from https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/dc-voices-enrollment-for-school-year-2025-26/