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In 1970, metropolitan Washington was more residentially segregated than DC proper. The 10-jurisdiction region had a black/white segregation index of 81 (hyper-segregation) compared its central city’s segregation index of 72 (high segregation).

Almost a half century later, in 2015, the now 22-jurisdiction region’s Black/Anglo segregation index was 61 compared to the central city’s 70 (both still in the high segregation range though the metro area is on the verge of moving into the medium segregation category.)

What explains this reversal? Massive suburbanization of DC’s black population.

 Black Suburbanization in metropolitan Washington

In 1970, three-quarters (76 percent) of the region’s blacks lived in the central city. By 2015, DC’s share of the region’s Black population had dropped to less than one-fifth (18 percent). (Remember that the 1970 figures do not separate out the Hispanics, and therefore I use the terms black and white. Beginning 1980, the Census started separating out the Hispanics. So, for these years I use the terms Black and Anglo, capitalized).

The flow of DC’s Black residents into Prince George’s County is well-recognized; by 2015, that county’s 558,903 Blacks were approaching twice that of DC’s 310,792 Blacks. But the significant Black suburbanization did not just happen in Prince George’s County. By 2015 Montgomery County’s Black population increased eight-fold to 174,054 or 17 percent of the county’s population; Fairfax County, almost seven-fold to 102,714, or 9 percent; Prince William County, almost 15-fold to 86,142, or 20 percent; and Loudoun County, five-fold to 25,281, or 7 percent. Both close-in Arlington County (18,587 or 8 percent) and Alexandria City (31,207, or 21 percent) almost doubled their Black populations.

Certainly, only a fraction of this growth represents actual movement of Blacks from DC to Suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia. Some of it is intergenerational growth. Forty-five years covers at least two generations. Over one-quarter of Suburban Maryland’s Blacks are African Americans born in Maryland; similarly, over one-third of Northern Virginia’s Blacks are now native Virginians.

Migration of African Americans into the region from other states was also significant: In addition, in 2015, metro Washington had over 225,000 foreign-born Blacks (one-seventh of all blacks); only 15 percent resided within DC proper.

In short, greater Black suburbanization may have occurred in the Washington region than in any other metropolitan area.

Has segregation declined faster or slower in Washington metro compared to other major metropolitan areas?

Let’s see how our region compares with regard to the decline in racial segregation overall in other major metropolitan areas:

The 1970 census documented the peak of racial segregation at the metropolitan level. The average segregation index in 33 major metropolitan areas was 82 with not much difference between Northeastern and Midwestern regions (84) and Southern and Western regions (80). Regions such as Chicago (92), Cleveland (91), Milwaukee (91), Los Angeles (91) and Oklahoma City (90) approached South African apartheid-style levels of black/white segregation.

Over the next four decades segregation indices in the South and West dropped much faster to an average of 59 than did segregation indices in the Northeast and Midwest (to an average of 71).

 

The above graph charts changes in racial segregation within illustrative metro areas:

More broadly, what are the factors that have driven residential desegregation? An obvious factor was the federal Fair Housing Act of 1968 that undoubtedly contributed to the 1970s being the greatest single decade of relative improvement.

Based on statistical analysis of the 61 metro areas above 1,000,000 residents from 1980 to 2010 (which yields an apples-to-apples comparison both through uniform configuration of metro areas and Black/Anglo definition), four factors account for 57 percent of the variation in Black/Anglo segregation. In rank order of importance as single-variable regressions, they are:

Thus, recent decades have seen consistently lower levels of Black/Anglo housing segregation in large metropolitan areas. Do the same patterns hold for Hispanic/Anglo housing patterns?

That will be the topic of the next article.

Notes

[10-jurisdiction region]  These include Washington, DC, Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties in MD, and Arlington Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties and the cities of Alexandra, Fairfax, and Falls Church in VA.

[22-jurisdiction] The other 12 jurisdictions are: Frederick, Calvert, and Charles counties in MD, Clarke, Stafford, Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Warren counties, and cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, and Fredericksburg in VA, and Jefferson county in WV.

[Black-Anglo] As in the earlier piece, I use the term “Anglo” to mean anyone who is not Hispanic, black, Asian or Native American. See the explanation here.

[single-variable regressions] For the statistically minded, using least-squares linear regression, the adjusted R2 measures for the four factors are central city age 0.39; metro population growth 0.35; governmental fragmentation 0.23; and metro percentage Black 0.15.   Interestingly, in the multi-variate regression (adjusted r-squared 0.57), per their relative t-stats, the order of influence is re-ordered: metro percentage Black (3.82); governmental fragmentation (3.09); metro population growth (-2.28); and central city age (-2.15).   All are statistically significant at the 99% confidence level except metro population growth and central city age which are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level in the multi-variate regression.


David Rusk is a Senior Fellow at the D.C. Policy Center. Rusk is a former federal Labor Department official, New Mexico legislator, and mayor of Albuquerque, the USA’s 32nd largest city. He is also the author of Cities without Suburbs. Now a consultant on urban policy, Rusk has worked in over 130 US communities in 35 states.  Abroad, Rusk has lectured on urban problems in Canada, England, Germany, South Africa, and The Netherlands. 

D.C. Policy Center Fellows are independent writers, and we gladly encourage the expression of a variety of perspectives. The views of our Fellows, published here or elsewhere, does not reflect the views of the D.C. Policy Center.

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