The Economist recently published an analysis comparing high school graduation rates and SAT scores in U.S. schools. The article shows the two metrics have been steadily diverging from each other in the last decade, with high school graduation rates rising and SAT scores falling. The reason for this, the author argues, is that American schools have been lowering standards and graduation requirements since the early 2000s and “inflating” grades for their students. For schools that have traditionally performed higher on standardized testing, the impact of these policies is negligible, as graduation rates have remained steadily high. However, for lower performing schools, there has been a stark increase in their graduation rates over time. As universities have begun to signal a return to requiring SAT scores in their applications, we wondered if these trends held true for D.C. students.
In D.C., high school graduation rates have steadily risen since 2018; however, the percentage of students meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark scores has not kept pace.
The graduation rate for District of Columbia Public Schools (DCPS) and public charter school students has steadily risen about 11 percentage points, from 69 percent in 2018 to 76 percent in 2023. During this same period, the percentage of D.C. students meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmarks scores declined from 20 percent to 18 percent. This changed in 2023, when the percentage of students meeting or exceeding college ready benchmarks increased back up to 20 percent. D.C. is still far below the national average of 40 percent in 2023. This dip in the percentage of students meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark, overall, could likely be contributed to the disruption the pandemic caused to the education system and students’ lives during these years and we have seen a return to pre-pandemic levels this year. Student performance on the SAT has not kept up with graduation rates in the District, however. Recent research has shown SAT scores are positively correlated with a student’s college GPA, regardless of socioeconomic background. The data suggest that although more D.C. students are graduating today, a smaller percentage of that graduating class are adequately prepared to pursue a four-year degree immediately following their high school graduation.
It is likely that the increase in graduation rates is being driven, in part, by some combination of changes in graduation requirements and grading policies. We know that graduation requirements were eased during the pandemic years. We also know that the 9th grade repetition rate is down, but this decline again did not coincide with an increase in statewide assessment scores or the percent meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark score. This suggests that changes in grading policies could have occurred in recent years, as we would expect these metrics trend in the same direction.
Importantly, Black and economically disadvantaged students in D.C. are seeing the largest divergence between graduation rates and the percentage meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark.
High school graduation rates have increased for all student groups in our analysis. However, the percentage of students meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark score varies between groups. The percentage of students meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark is positively correlated with their high school graduation rate. In other words, these two metrics tend to move together for these students. Furthermore, this student group has historically performed better the both the D.C. and national average.
In contrast, Black and economically disadvantaged student groups experienced declines in the percentage of students meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark despite seeing significant gains in their graduation rates. In other words, for Black and economically disadvantaged students, these two metrics have been diverging from each other in recent years. It is also important to note that these two student groups have historically performed below both the D.C. and national averages. It is likely, therefore, that more Black and economically disadvantaged students are graduating with lower academic achievement scores than in previous years.
Changes in the number of students taking the SAT are small and do not account for changes in the proportion of students meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark.
While taking the SAT is not required in the District, all DCPS and public charter school juniors and seniors are eligible to take the test for free. This, combined with dedicated testing days at school, has resulted in extremely high participation rates in the District. For context, DCPS releases aggregated data on the number of DCPS 11th and 12th grade students who have taken the SAT each year, showing that the number of students who have taken the SAT each year from 2018 to 2023 has remained steady (excluding a dip in 2021 due to the pandemic). Given this, the number of students who take the test each year does not account for the fluctuations in the percentage of students meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark score.
Rising to the challenge
The percentage of all D.C. students meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark has stalled in recent years, the percentage of Black and economically disadvantaged students meeting or exceeding the SAT college ready benchmark has decreased, and 60% of D.C. high schoolers are chronically absent. Despite these conditions, D.C. graduation rates are increasing. Graduation is not a substitute for preparedness, and all metrics ought to be considered when addressing the challenges facing D.C. students and schools.